Methodology
High leverage
High leverage possessions are the moments in a game where the outcome hangs in the balance. These are the plays that can meaningfully swing a game's win probability and they tend to occur in close games as time winds down.
Our leverage score assigns every possession a continuous value, where 1.0 represents an average possession. We classify a possession as "high leverage" when its leverage score reaches 2.0 or higher, meaning it is at least twice as consequential as a typical possession.
Keep an eye out for the scales icon in the play-by-play feed to identify which plays qualify as high leverage.
When does high leverage begin?
High leverage doesn't kick in at a fixed time or margin. It emerges naturally from the win probability model and depends on three factors:
- score margin
- time remaining
- the pre-game strength of both teams.
In a game between two evenly matched teams, a tied game first reaches the 2.0 threshold around the midpoint of the third quarter, with roughly 5 to 6 minutes remaining in the period. From that point on, every possession in a close game qualifies as high leverage, and the leverage score continues to climb as the game approaches its conclusion.
In a lopsided matchup (where one team is a heavy pre-game favourite), the same tied score doesn't reach high leverage until much later. Because the model expects the stronger team to pull away, a tied game at the same point feels less "on the line" than it does between evenly matched teams. In these cases, a tied game might not hit the 2.0 threshold until around the 8-minute mark of the fourth quarter.
How margin affects high leverage
The score margin has a dramatic effect on leverage. To illustrate, here are approximate leverage scores for evenly matched teams at various points in a game:
| Margin | Q4 start | Q4 8:00 | Q4 4:00 | Q4 2:00 | Q4 1:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tied | 2.4 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 7.3 |
| 2 points | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| 4 points | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| 6 points | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10 points | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 15 points | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
A few patterns stand out. A tied game at the start of Q4 already has a leverage score of 2.4, and this climbs steeply as the clock winds down. A 4-point game is right on the threshold of high leverage for most of the fourth quarter. By 6 points, the game generally falls just below the high leverage line. And at 10 or 15 points, leverage drops well below average, meaning those possessions carry little consequence for the game's outcome.
Notice how leverage for a 4-point game actually decreases slightly from 2.6 to 2.1 between Q4 4:00 and Q4 1:00. This is because with very little time left, even a 4-point deficit becomes difficult to overcome, so the outcome is already becoming settled from the leverage model's perspective.
High leverage stats
On Hoops Junkie, we offer high leverage stat leaders alongside the traditional, advanced, and clutch categories. These filter the full season down to only the possessions that met the 2.0 threshold, giving a picture of how players and teams perform specifically in the moments that matter most.
Because high leverage is derived from our win probability model rather than fixed time and margin cutoffs, it captures meaningful game states that the clutch definition misses. A tie game with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter isn't clutch, but it is high leverage. A 4-point game at the start of the fourth quarter isn't clutch, but it's right on the high leverage threshold.